1. 李鹤、张平宇、程叶青：“脆弱性的概念及其评价方法”，《地理科学进展》，2008年第2期，第18-25页；杨飞、马超、方华军：“脆弱性研究进展：从理论研究到综合实践”，《生态学报》，2019年第2期；王福玲：“认真对待脆弱性”，中国社会科学网，2021年9月7日，https://m.thepaper.cn/baijiahao_14396138；《中国大百科全书》也收录了“脆弱性”术语，界定为经济学范畴，https://www.zgbk.com/ecph/words?SiteID=1&ID =120436

2. Robert O. Keohane, Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition, ‎Little, Brown, and Company, 1977, p.13.

3. [美]纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布：《反脆弱》，雨珂译，北京：中信出版社，2014年。

4. 吴晨：“韧性与创新”，《经济观察报》，2022年12月5日，第1098期。

5. 于滨：“中俄正常关系的再思考：理论、历史与未来”，《俄罗斯研究》，2023年第4期。

6. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”, Foreign Affairs, June 21, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/2022-06-21/will-china-and-russ ia-stay-aligned

7. 出处同上。

8. Marcin Kaczmarski, “Which Russia-China Relationship Will Emerge After the War?” Italian Institute for International Political Studies, May 5, 2022, https://www.ispionline.it/en/p ublication/which-russia-china-relationship-will-emerge-after-war-34895

9. Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, “Narrative: All Quiet on the Eastern Front”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 23, 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/publication s/87185?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

10. Charles A. Kupchan, “The Right Way to Split China and Russia: Washington Should Help Moscow Leave a Bad Marriage”, Foreign Affairs, August 4, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.c om/articles/united-states/2021-08-04/right-way-split-china-and-russia

11. Alexander Gabuev, “China’s New Vassal. How the War in Ukraine Turned Moscow Into Beijing’s Junior Partner”, Foreign Affairs, August 9, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/chi na/chinas-new-vassal

12. Una Aleksandra Berzina-Cerenkova, “Sino-Russian Narratives of Cooperation and What It Means for the Baltics”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, August 6, 2020, https://www.fpri.or g/article/2020/08/sino-russian-narratives-of-cooperation-and-what-it-means-for-the-baltics/

13.Kathrin Hille et al., “US urged to exploit cracks in Russia-China relationship”, The Financial Times, July 27 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/b59bd581-a9f8-4415-9be6-4dff722 e87a9

14. Alpetrovitch, D., Radchenko, S., “Another Russia Is Possible. The Kremlin Will Eventually Tire of Its Reliance on China”, Foreign Affairs, August 29, 2022, https://www.forei gnaffairs.com/russian-federation/another-russia-possible

15. Charles A. Kupchan, “The Right Way to Split China and Russia: Washington Should Help Moscow Leave a Bad Marriage”, Foreign Affairs, August 4, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.c om/articles/united-states/2021-08-04/right-way-split-china-and-russia

16. Alpetrovitch D, Radchenko S, “Another Russia Is Possible. The Kremlin Will Eventually Tire of Its Reliance on China”, Foreign Affairs, August 29, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.co m/russian-federation/another-russia-possible

17. Elizabeth Wishnick, “Still ‘No Limits’? The China-Russia Partnership After Samarkand”, Russia Matters, September 22, 2022, https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/still-no-limits-chi na-russia-partnership-after-samarkand

18. Una Berzina-Cerenkova, Tim Rühlig, “China’s Complex Relations with Russia: Tracing the Limits of a ‘Limitless Friendship’” Internationale Politik Quarterly, September 12, 2023, https://ip-quarterly.com/en/chinas-complex-relations-russia-tracing-limits-limitless-friendship

19. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

20. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

21. Bobo Lo, “The Sino-Russian Partnership. Assumptions, Myths and Realities”, Russie.Nei.Reports, 2023, No.42, https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/etudes-de-lifri/russienei reports/sino-russian-partnership-assumptions-myths-and

22. [美]T. N. 杜普伊主编：《国际军事与防务百科全书》，中国人民解放军军事科学院外国军事研究部编译，北京：解放军出版社，1998年。

23. “A conversation with Henry Kissinger: The transcript of his meeting with our journalists”, The Economist, May 17, 2023, https://www.economist.com/kissinger-transcript

24. Thomas S .Wilkins, “‘Alignment’, not ‘alliance’ – the shifting paradigm of international security cooperation: Toward a conceptual taxonomy of alignment”, Review of International Studies, 2012, Vol.38, No.1, pp.53-76.

25. [美]戴维·莱克：《国际关系中的等级制》，高婉妮译，上海：上海人民出版社，2013年。

26. 郑宇：“21世纪多边主义的危机与转型”，《世界经济与政治》，2020年第8期。

27. [美]布热津斯基：“美对华缺战略目光 需警惕中俄结盟”，《环球时报》，2017年1月13日；“社评：结伙对抗中俄将是美西方噩梦之旅”，《环球时报》，2021年5月5日。

28. Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, “Narrative: All Quiet on the Eastern Front”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 23, 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/publication s/87185?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

29. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

30. 出处同上。

31. 出处同上。

32. Simon Saradzhyan, “Why Russia’s alliance with China is improbable, but not impossible”, The Foundation for Strategic Research, September 21, 2020, https://www.frstrategie.org/en/pu blications/recherches-et-documents/why-russia-s-alliance-china-improbable-not-impossible-2020

33. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

34. 该项目的核心成员包括：美国前负责亚太事务的副国务卿詹姆斯•斯坦伯格（James B. Steinberg），国家亚洲研究局主席、著名的中美关系专家理查德·埃林斯（Richard Ellings），知名“中国通”、曾任国家情报委员会负责东亚和太平洋事务的情报官罗伯特•萨特（Robert Sutter），长期供职布鲁金斯学会负责俄罗斯欧亚项目的资深俄罗斯问题专家安杰拉·斯滕特（Angela Stent），哈德逊研究所政治与军事分析中心主任理查德•韦茨（Richard Weitz）等。See “Strategic Implications of China-Russia Relations”, https://www.nbr. org/program/strategic-implications-of-russia-china-relations/

35. Richard J. Ellings and Robert Sutter, Axis of Authoritarians: Implications of China-Russia Cooperation, National Bureau of Asian Research, 2018. https://www.nbr.org/publication/axis- of-authoritarians-implications-of-china-russia-cooperation/

36. 于滨：“美国外交政策中的‘中俄温差’”，《俄罗斯研究》，2020年第5期，第70-108页。

37. Hal Brands, “The Eurasian Nightmare. Chinese-Russian Convergence and the Future of American Order”, Foreign Affairs, February 25, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ china/2022-02-25/eurasian-nightmare?check_logged_in=1&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=registered_user_welcome&utm_term=email_1&utm_content=20231125

38. “Putin to visit China to deepen ‘no limits’ partnership with Xi”, October 15, 2023, https://w ww.reuters.com/world/putin-visit-china-deepen-no-limits-partnership-with-xi-2023-10-15/

39. 《中华人民共和国和俄罗斯联邦关于新时代国际关系和全球可持续发展的联合声明》，《人民日报》，2022年2月5日第2版。

40. Samuel Charap, John Drennan, Pierre Noël, “Russia and China: A New Model of Great-Power Relations”, Survival, 2017, Vol.59, No.1, pp.25-42.

41. Bobo Lo, “The Sino-Russian Partnership. Assumptions, Myths and Realities”.

42. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

43. Robert E. Hamilton, “Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, May 25, 2023, https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/stress-testing-chinese-russian- relations/

44. Lukyanov, F.A, “Between Two Special Operations”, Russia in Global Affairs, 2023, Vol.21, No.2, pp.5-10.

45. Sergey Radchenko, “Driving a Wedge Between China and Russia Won’t Work”, War on the Rocks, August 24, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/driving-a-wedge-between-chi na-and-russia-wont-work/

46. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

47. Michael Kofman, “The Emperors League: Understanding Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation”, War on the Rocks, August 6, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/the-emp erors-league-understanding-sino-russian-defense-cooperation/

48. Dmitriy Nurullayev, Mihaela Papa, “Bloc Politics at the UN: How Other States Behave When the United States and China–Russia Disagree”, Global Studies Quarterly, 2023, Vol.3, No.3, pp.1-11.

49. 孙信、李健：“求同存异原则溯源”，《中央社会主义学院学报》，2001年第1期。

50. 引自华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心主任冯绍雷教授承担的2021年度国家高端智库重点课题的结项报告（未对外发布）。

51. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

52. Stephen J. Hadley, “Stephen Hadley on the Major Challenges Facing the United States Today”, The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, November 14, 2023, https://w ww.belfercenter.org/publication/stephen-hadley-major-challenges-facing-united-states-today

53. Lindsay Maizland, “China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers”, Council on Foreign Relations, June 14, 2022, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-russia- relationship-xi-putin-taiwan-ukraine

54. Samuel Charap, John Drennan & Pierre Noël, “Russia and China: A New Model of Great-Power Relations,” Survival, 2017, Vol.59, No.1, pp.25-42.

55. Hal Brands, “The Eurasian Nightmare. Chinese-Russian Convergence and the Future of American Order”, Foreign Affairs, February 25, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ china/2022-02-25/eurasian-nightmare?check_logged_in=1&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=registered_user_welcome&utm_term=email_1&utm_content=20231125

56. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

57. 出处同上。

58. Joe Webster, Paddy Ryan, “Beijing and Moscow clash over Kazakhstan’s oil”, Eurasianet, Aug 11, 2022, https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-beijing-and-moscow-clash-over-kazakhstans -oil

59. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, David Shullman, Dan McCormick, “Navigating Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation”, War on the Rocks, August 5, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/ navigating-sino-russian-defense-cooperation/

60. Adam Segal, “Peering Into the Future of Sino-Russian Cyber Security Cooperation”, War on the Rocks, August 10, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/peering-into-the-future-of- sino-russian-cyber-security-cooperation/

61. Nicholas Ross Smith, Tracey Fallon, “The importance of bona fide friendships to international politics: China’s quest for friendships that matter”, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 2022.

62. “Will China and Russia Stay Aligned? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”.

63. William A. Callahan, “Chinese Global Orders: Socialism, Tradition, and Nation in China–Russia Relations”, Issues & Studies, 2023, Vol.59, No.2, pp.1-28.

64. Mikhail Troitskiy, “A Final Reckoning? Sino-Russian Relations Amid Russia’s War on Ukraine”, PONARS, June 9, 2023, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371445335_A_Fi nal_Reckoning_Sino-Russian_Relations_Amid_Russia's_War_on_Ukraine

65. Sergey Radchenko, “Driving a Wedge Between China and Russia Won’t Work”.

66. Liselotte Odgaard, “Chinese Perspectives on Alliance and Alignment: Entrapment Concerns in China’S Foreign Relations”, Asian Affairs, 2023, Vol.54, No.3, pp.432-452.

67. Andrew Radin, Andrew Scobell, Elina Treyger, J. D. Williams, Logan Ma, Howard J. Shatz, Sean M. Zeigler, Eugeniu Han, Clint Reach, China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States, California: RAND Corporation, 2021. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3067.html

68. Björn Alexander Düben, “Omnibalancing in China-Russia relations: regime survival and the specter of domestic threats as an impetus for bilateral alignment”, Post-Soviet Affairs, 2023, Vol.39, No.6, pp.462-486.

69. Stephen J. Hadley, Karen Donfried, “Stephen Hadley on the Major Challenges Facing the United States Today”, Belfer Center, November 14, 2023, https://www.belfercenter.org/publica tion/stephen-hadley-major-challenges-facing-united-states-today

70. Andrey Kortunov, “Russia Facing China: Little Red Riding Hood or Cinderella?” Russian International Affairs Council, September 16, 2022, https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-c omments/analytics/russia-facing-china-little-red-riding-hood-or-cinderella/

71. Федор Лукьянов. Анти-СВО и ее последствия// Профиль. 2023. №.11-12. С.40-42.

72. “国务委员兼外交部长王毅就中国外交政策和对外关系回答中外编辑提问”，中国政府网，2022年3月8日，https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-03/08/content_5677795.htm

73. “王毅会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫”，中华人民共和国外交部，2022年7月8日，https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/202207/t20220708_10717115.shtml

74. “习近平会见俄罗斯总统普京”，新华网，2023年3月21日，http://www.news.cn/politics/leaders/2023-03/21/c_1129448868.htm

75. “中俄全方位合作务实高效”，人民网，2024年1月8日，http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0108/c1002-40154720.html

76. 关于认知结构的转换性及其转换规律的论述参见[瑞士]皮亚杰：《结构主义》，倪连生、王琳译，北京：商务印书馆，1984年，第1-11页，第52-67页。也可参见国内学者相关梳理，陈英和：“皮亚杰学派与现代认知心理学关于儿童认知发展观点之比较”，《北京师范大学学报（社会科学版）》，1995年第1期。

77. [德]卡尔·马克思、[德]弗里德里希·恩格斯：《马克思恩格斯选集》，中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局编译，北京：人民出版社，2012年，第94页。

78. 本文的“全球转型”主要指：各国内部政治经济体制转型；在此背景下的国际秩序的调整；作为内部制度变迁和国际秩序这两者间连接物的各国对外政策与战略。这三者经过互动而形成的普遍性趋势与进程，可被视为是全球转型的总体态势。参见冯绍雷：“欧洲对抗与亚洲突围——全球转型中的欧亚新博弈”，《俄罗斯研究》，2022年第1期，第84-91页；Андрей Цыганков, Эпоха полураспада: от миропорядка к миропереходу// Россия в глобальной политике. 2019. T.17. №2; Владимир Барановский. Трансформация глобального миропорядка: динамика системных изменений// Полис. Политические исследования. 2017. №3; Barry Buzan, George Lawson, The Global Transformation: History, Modernity and the Making of International Relations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015.

79. 万青松：“2021年的俄罗斯外交：再平衡中的新调适”，《俄罗斯研究》，2022年第1期，第164-192页。

80. 冯绍雷：“旧世界已老去， 新世界尚在构建中”，《文汇报》，2021年1月22日，第8版。

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