前途未卜的2024年

无论是对于欧盟，还是美国或者德国来说，2024年注定不会是一个平静的年份。

首先，2024年将迎来众多的重要选举。无论是足以左右世界政治格局的美国总统选举，还是仅仅具有有限政治意义的欧洲议会选举，抑或令德国传统主流政党疲于应对的东部联邦州选举，都将从政治、经济和社会层面上，或直接、或间接地影响俄乌冲突。虽然预测这些选举的结果为时尚早，但是有一点基本可以明确，即欧洲将不得不继续加大对乌克兰的支持力度，以达到“俄罗斯不可以获胜”的目的。否则，欧洲就必须调整自己的叙事，寻求冲突的政治解决方案。

其次，俄乌冲突在进入第三年之际，事实已经发展为类似一战后期的阵地战、物资战和消耗战。如果没有新力量的加入（如美国在一战后期加入协约国阵营），或者突破性军事技术的出现（如刚刚被解职的前乌克兰武装部队总司令扎卢日内，在2023年反攻失利后接受英国《经济学家》对话时所表达的观点[12]），或者某个冲突方因内部原因而崩溃或退出（如一战后期的沙皇俄国），不能排除这场冲突将会长远被“冻结”，当前的前线成为事实的占领分界线。

这种远景对于欧洲而言，无异于战略噩梦，因为这意味着欧洲将不得不把相当的精力和资源用于对俄罗斯展开军事对峙，欧洲重回“冷战2.0”时代。但是，这可能是一个没有美国核保护伞的更冷的“冷战”，欧洲所面临的未来势必具有更大的挑战性和不确定性。

注释：

[1]Reuters, EU agrees 50 bln euro Ukraine aid package - what are the reactions? 01.02.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-agrees-50-bln-euro-ukraine-aid-package-what-are-reactions-2024-02-01/.

[2]Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, Parliament of Ukraine adopts State Budget for 2024, 09.11.2023, https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/verkhovna-rada-ukrainy-pryiniala-derzhbiudzhet-na-2024-rik.

[3]Ansa, Meloni, Orban have more talks before EU summit, 01.02.2024, https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2024/02/01/meloni-orban-have-more-talks-before-eu-summit_ce5b89ab-d5f4-4f9d-be47-93a286705201.html; Andrew Rettman, Meloni-Orbán: the new EU 'power couple' but for how long? 02.02.2024, https://euobserver.com/world/158026.

[4]Transcript: The future of Europe, Gideon Rachman talks to Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, 04.01.2024, https://www.ft.com/content/af446f94-c151-491c-b753-b4625df7a8bc.

[5]Government support to Ukraine: Military aid, in: Ch. Trebesch et al., Ukraine Support Tracker. A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine, https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/.

[6]Patricia Zengerle, Richard Cowan and Makini Brice, US Senate advances $95 bln Ukraine, Israel aid bill after failed border deal, 09.02.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-vote-95-bln-ukraine-israel-aid-bill-after-failed-border-deal-2024-02-08/.

[7]Nicolas Camut/Sergey Goryashko, Putin tells Tucker Carlson Ukraine war can be “over in a few weeks” 09.02.2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-tucker-carlson-ukraine-war-elon-musk/.

[8]Stephanie Lai/Alicia Diaz, Trump Says War in Ukraine Must End Even as US Aid Advances, 11.02.2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-10/trump-says-ukraine-war-must-end-as-senate-advances-aid-package.

[9]Erik Wasson, Trump’s NATO Remark Sparks Political Storm in World Capitals, 11.02.2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-11/us-calls-trump-s-russia-remark-on-nato-allies-appalling. a

[10]Presse- und Informationsamt der Bundesregierung, Bilaterale Unterstützungsleistungen der Bundesregierung für die Ukraine und Menschen aus der Ukraine, Stand: 13.12.2023, https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schwerpunkte/krieg-in-der-ukraine/deutschland-hilft-der-ukraine-2160274.

[11]Olaf Scholz, A Russian Victory in Ukraine Would Imperil Us All, 07.02.2024, https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-russian-victory-in-ukraine-would-imperil-us-all-abee35e6.

[12]The White House, Remarks by President Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany Before Bilateral Meeting, 09.02.2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/09/remarks-by-president-biden-and-chancellor-olaf-scholz-of-germany-before-bilateral-meeting/.

[13]Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia, 01.11.2023, https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-commander-in-chief-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia.

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