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李世默对话全球南方国家政治家:起来,不愿做“美元奴隶”的人们
对话英文原文:
Eric: Welcome to the Beijing Club for International Dialogue. So today we have a special guest, my friend Izzah from Malaysia and my old friend Busani from South Africa. We live in a turbulent time. We had 30 years run of globalization, and in the last few years, maybe 5 years, everything is going up in smokes, both economically, politically and militarily: Military conflicts, economic wars, supply chain problems. It seems to me that the whole model of globalization that began at the end of the cold war is in trouble. It has run aground. At the same time we see another trend, which is this rapid rise of the Global South, has become an enormous player on the world stage collectively. I think for the first time, recently, the trade between us, Global South countries, has exceeded the trade volume between us and the Global North. so we're doing more with ourselves, amongst the Global South countries, than we are doing with Global North. And we're about 60%~65% of the global growth, all the Global South countries together. And Global South countries are very diverse. We got the poorest country in Africa. We got wealthiest countries in middle east, powerful military country; ASEAN, of course, is a big player in the Global South. Then we have new institutions being set up and being enlarged like BRICS; and South Africa of course is the founding country of BRICS. It's now just enlarge to include Saudi Arabia and Iran and UAE etc. How do you see the role of the Global South in general and also in particular in Malaysia? Malaysia is one of the most influential countries in ASEAN, a leader in ASEAN, along with Indonesia. How do you see your role, Malaysia role and ASEAN role in this global transition?
Izzah: Thank you, Eric, and Busani. It's a real pleasure to be here, not just being hosted by the Beijing Dialogue, but I think more importantly the topic at hand. I believe in everything that we try to achieve, it must somehow be able to manage future challenges. And we're just here, Malaysia is not excluded from the 3 year pandemic that has really thrown everyone off balance, and rightfully so, because when else would we realize the systemic inequalities, perhaps the rather prejudicial or biases of the Global North to make us wake up.
It reminds me of the first time we met; so many might not don't know this, when we met at the side of the Khazanah Malaysia sovereign wealth fund mega-trends forum, Eric li was invited as a keynote speaker. The first thing he said was of this book called the Asian renaissance written 27 years ago by my party president and father, Anwar Ibrahim, but I think as a person who was just 17, then in my 40s now, that for me is that kind of vision. We talk about a resurgence in Asia that can stand up at par with countries of the Global North.
But now, through BRICS, through collaboration, the founding, the decisions made by South Africa, by Brazil, China, you see the concrete realization, and this is what we need to do. It's great and it's important to have a philosophical underpining, but Malaysia has indicated our readiness as well to engage and plan ahead. You can't plan ahead for the next even 5 year cycle. I would argue when you talk about BRICS and the potential for growth and the clear cut hypocrisy that the US and a lot of western nations have exposed themselves to, is to plan ahead for the next decade and more. How do we include ourselves in the supply chain interlinkages and also able to affect lives for the better.
Eric: I think you touched on two important aspects of this. So I was one of the earliest readers of your dad's book. We were college students, we just had graduated from college. At that time in the 90s end of history, we're all becoming Louisiana or hoping to become. Then we're all kind of at a loss; on one hand, we're trying hard to develop and make money. On the other hand, we're asking, who are we why are we doing this? And then my classmates said, hey, there's a Malaysian guy who wrote this book, Asian renaissance. So it's way ahead of his time actually in a way, but you said something very interesting, philosophical underpinning. What is the philosophical narrative, the philosophical framework that a diverse set of countries like the Global South can think about and have and build something that's in common that can unify us.
So we're very diverse. Is there a philosophical narrative that could unite us one. That’s on the philosophical level. Two, on the practical level, we're trading more amongst us now than with the Global North, but we're still using the US dollars, the currency, and we're still depending on the Global North on so many things like semiconductors, technology and financial system. I remember President Lula, when he was in Shanghai last year, I was in the audience, the biggest statement he made was, every night he goes to sleep, he asked himself, why do we have to use the US dollar?
It was incredible. He was in the New Development Bank. So what are the practical things that we could do to break out of this and control our own destiny?
Busani: So I've learned two new concepts colleagues in the past few weeks whilst I've been here. One of them is a concept called all weather relationships. I saw it when President Xi was in Europe last week, in the last the country he visited, the partnerships that were sealed. They were called all weather strategic partnerships. I think it matters that in managing the affairs of the Global South, we need those type of all weather relationships amongst ourselves as countries of the Global South because the all weather relationship will allow us first to manage contradictions amongst ourselves, because we do have contradictions, that is understandable.
But secondly, they would allow us to prioritize that which matters the most for us, the Global South to focus on. That means that we can have pledged solidarity on matters that matter, such as the palestinian question, we can have solidarity on that. That means there could be solidarity on issues of trade, there could be solidarity on how we reverse the trend of attacking multilateral institutions like the WTO through the use of hard power to undermine these institutions that were established as globalization was being promoted through the institutions like the WTO for example.
The second concept that I have learned recently is this concept of there being Global North, the Global South and the Global East and that China is actually part of what is called the Global East. Part of what we need to do in the most practical way as part of building solidarity, as part of building these all weather, mission driven relationships as the Global South is to deal with these attempts of isolating any member of the Global South or dividing ourselves as the Global South. And that is what we see. Hence this idea of the Global East.
But most fundamentally South Africa is 30 years old now as a democracy since 1994. In everything that South Africa has done over the past three decades, there's a lot of lessons from Malaysia. We implemented equity and many other measures. There's a lot of things we've done by learning from what has happened here in China, because we had some advantage in that we became free in 1994, when the experiment of reforms had already taken place in the people's republic of China, in Malaysia as well as in other countries. So a lot of the things that we have tried to do to build a post apartheid society is based on those. So by that I mean, the biggest task ahead of countries like Malaysia, China and others in the Global South is to practically support other countries in the Global South to build their own dynamic capabilities so that they can be able to manage such issues as it was trade, rebuilding their economies and build institutions, because that's part of the challenge that is facing many countries in the Global South.
Eric: So on the situation in Gaza, that's probably a good prism. We can look through the philosophical, moral underpining you talk about. We find fairly almost unprecedented, unified position among Global South countries, in South Africa.
Izzah: You guys are really the standard bearer.
Eric: And your prime minister has been one of the most vocal. This is unimaginable 20 years ago, your prime minister what he's been saying around the globe. Everywhere everytime he gets a chance, he's right up on front unapologetically, making moral statements. This is kind of new for the Global South, really new. The Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping talks about building a new just world, it's about justice in the world. So it's very interesting, very refreshing. Are we getting anywhere with this, is this a sign of a new kind of Global South?
Izzah: I wanted to say that even being here with Busani, from the early days of Malaysia supporting the Madiba, to today seeing that we can take previous trauma, suffering and turn it into something good and you shouldn't end up being the monster you fought against. I think when you say and you see South Africa taking up the case at the international court of justice and this list, even Colombia, even Brazil, I think it really showcases the ability. We have to fight bullies for one thing, but we also have to speak the truth. And sometimes I think in the world where the moral compass has somehow been thrown by the powers that be, I think, more the reason why we have to craft this clear cut set of parameters.
So one is to speak truth to abuse, especially when genocidal attacks take place because Busani mentioned about multilateral institutions, not only is the veto power strangling the ability to preserve and work towards peace. But you have this complete ignoring outright, every single kind of action put against a rogue state, because that's how rules should be applied to equally. Regardless of the might and the size of the nation.
Eric: Who is the real rogue state?
Izzah: Exactly! And that's very saddening, because it ends up making the world far less safer, far more dangerous. And who do you blame? So for me going back to how can the Global South harness this moment, I would say is not just necessary to say that because it's right. It's also to make sure we preserve a world order. We preserve a clear cut rule of law and unabashedly standing up.
Number two, going back to the issue of practicality, because at the end of the day, we also want to make sure that trading links, supply chain, the lessons from China's success in establishing a vertical and horizontal supply chain network, parts of it can be learned and acquired from countries which are still developing.
I quote Keun Lee here, along the same grouping as Ha-Joon Chang, because in terms of an economic catch up, we also can't have a step by step approach following the same western model because usually that model will impose a very stringent IPI regime that makes it even more harder for countries like the Global South who are struggling. Even the vaccines, right? So I don't have to go to detail, but the point is, the spiritual, the rule of law, the philosophical underpinnings and the practicality. These things can be better packaged so that it can be something that we can deepen and emulate.
Eric: Again, we trace the two levels of our narratives. One is maybe we are experiencing a collective moral awakening of the Global South. Can we take that? Can we take it somewhere? We should all think about this. You go back to Malaysia, you go back to South Africa. We need to develop ideas and propagate them and organize people. Can we weave this together and make it into a collective moral awakening, that we're together. And then at a practical level, like you said, one of the books that influenced me a lot was written fifteen twenty years ago by a Cambridge economist called Kicking Away the Ladder.
Izzah: Ha-Joon chang。
Eric: They got there this way and now we're trying to kick the ladder. So the Chinese were very lucky, both through hard work and some luck that kept our grip on the ladder and we kind of got up there. I think it's too late for them to kick away the ladder. They're throwing the kitchen sink at us.
Izzah: Section 201.
Eric: But we're on the castle. But being there alone is not good enough. We gotta bring the rest of the Global South there, only that could we make it sustainable for us, because we have a different philosophy, we have a different moral code, we have different political creed. We had globalization for several decades, now we're going through a de-globalizing era, driven by the Global North, by the way, because they want to kick away the ladder. Now they feel globalization is hurting their interests, so they don't want it anymore, because before they were making money so they want, but I think it's a little too late. So what we want to do is go through this de-globalization phase and try to re-globalize. The re-globalized world is gonna be a different kind of globalized world. It's gonna be more inclusive, globalized world. So we've been talking about how can China work with the rest of the Global South, with ASEAN, with BRICS countries, maybe the Belt and Road thing, the infrastructure building and also manufacturing.
So the Chinese path towards technology is totally different from the West, the West build technologies and they collect rents, they use technologies to exploit the rest of the world. And even in the last short period of 10, 20 years with the advancement of Chinese technologies, we see a totally different thing.When Chinese invent technologies, we beat up each other and get the price down to nothing. It's maddening to an investor like me sometimes but that's just the nature of the beast. The Chinese have a different way of approaching this. Every time the Chinese invent something, very quickly it become lower costing for the rest of the world. EV, for instance. if the Americans are at the same position, EVs will be selling more expensive than the Mercedes, I'm telling you because that's how they do it. Aspirin, they could keep selling aspirin at 90% gross margin for 50 years. If the Chinese invent a new drug, it'll be down to nothing like 5 years ago.
Izzah: I like how you say things that people think about but not necessarily mouth.
Eric: So now we are potentially going to different type of globalization; if we could keep it going like this, like I said, we climb up the ladder, we have Chinese technologies, and then we bring world production and global market. How do we work together on the supply chain all of these things?
Busani: Let me give it a practical example; in the article I'm writing for Guancha, which is coming out tomorrow I think, I make a proposal that's what the Global South must agree on is what I call the Kimberley Process 2.0. Those of you who watched the movie, blood diamonds, will remember how the diamond trade created havoc in many countries, especially in Africa, that were producing diamonds.
There was a process called the Kimberley process named after the place where diamonds were discovered in South Africa. It became a dialogue process where eventually there are set of rules that are used globally, it must be applied by everybody who is in the trade or the sale of diamond; by introducing that Kimberley Process, we saw conflicts in countries like Liberia and so on reversing, because every diamond that is selling globally has to be accounted for.
Right now, the big conflict that is going to happen in many countries in Africa, I suppose could be in Asia as well as in Latin America, is around the critical minerals. These are critical minerals required for the green revolution, which includes the manufacturer of EVs. I am proposing that we need a Kimberley Process 2, specifically designed for critical minerals. Because by doing that, what the EU is doing, for example, in Congo, what the US and them are doing in many countries in Africa that are producing critical minerals, because they want to compete with China, and is brewing conflicts in those countries, that can be reversed.
And secondly, it means that through this global value chains that you are talking about, countries that have got critical minerals can then industrialize using those, which means even if the ladder is kicked, they can make some leaps. They don't have to wait and go through each and every step of catching up. Because those countries like in central Africa and so on can mine these critical minerals, do some kind of processing, before they end up here in China where they are making EVs and all sorts of others. That's where it will be the biggest contribution, for example, of China in the industrialization of the Global South, if there was a mechanism that says we would be buying these critical minerals, you do the following beneficiation of those minerals before they get here, and all of them are accounted for. So they are done peacefully, and secondly, there is a form of industrialization that took place there; that will shake the empire to its core, because it has never been tried before.
Eric: I actually think we are at a critical juncture. We have amazing opportunities because somehow if we can marry China's enormous industrial capacity with the resources and the market of the Global South, we put them together, we form a new globalized world outside of what I call a small garden. We're the world and they’re the small garden. I think it was Fareed Zakaria who talked about the west and the rest, the rise of the rest, I want to turn around and just say the world and the west; we’re the world and they are the west. So there's so much to do. Can ASEAN be a more active player?
Izzah: I think we have to also be aware that there are social developmental differences between the different nations of ASEAN and different levels of economic development for one thing, but that can be harnessed in terms of making sure what kind of model can apply best to which nation.
I like when Busani mentioned this Kimberley Process, Malaysia, we set up our downstream development of oil and gas, our own national petroleum company back in 1974. It was important because if we didn't, it would have been difficult. So imagine now rare earth, critical minerals, how did you develop the ability? It's not just selling the raw materials, but it is making sure that you are able to harness downstream. You have a talent pool and it takes time, it takes a lot of political will, it takes patience and it takes a mindset that doesn't want just to profit here tomorrow. This is where I think, the more we talk about it, then you can understand as you link, your role is also to figure out your respective nations, how will I get better in the next ten years.
Couple that with other mechanisms, one is the issuance and the usage of compulsory or voluntary licensing which Malaysia had introduced. When it comes to vaccines or treatment, that's extremely expensive; you know how these big pharmas come and then they impose ridiculous pricing and you see people die because the governments can't afford to treat people.
So we did it successfully with the cooperation of drugs for neglected diseases, DNDI, with our Ministry of Health, and voila, you have affordable Hepatitis C medication that saved more than tens of thousands of lives.
So again, making sure each of us know, whether it’s this rare minerals, critical minerals, or whether it's simple things as much needed medication, it can be done and it should be done and everyone should embrace this. Because what are they gonna do? When they can't sell to the Malaysian market, they knock on Vietnam’s door; but we've got to stand together. We have to really convince everybody in ASEAN.
Eric: Collective bargaining of the Global South. On so many fronts that we can do this, if we have political will. So Busani, what about South Africa? You guys are the leader.
Busani: It's important that in these conversations, we think of contradictions, each country has got its own contradictions of national development, contradictions in the regime and contradictions globally.
Recently, there's been a number of South Africans who have been saying, you should be dealing with poverty here and not going to the international courts of justice and worrying about what's happening in another country and so on.
And government is clear that national development and its pursuits must not negate other responsibilities such as pursuing the agenda of peace and justice as we have been doing as South Africa. And we're happy that many other countries have actually joined forces with South Africa. Because it’s very important what Madiba Mandela said, that we need to give a human face, a new face, a human face into the global order. Hence South Africa is pursuing that.
And we truly appreciate that with all the challenges we have experienced, including the lessons learned from state building over the past 30 years, built on the experiences, for example, we have a National Planning Commission. The National Planning Commission is built on the Planning Council here as well as the Commission on Malaysia. I'm doing work with the Ha-Joon chang he’s coming into the new cabinet in July, he will be part of the people who will be in that conversation.
We truly understand that one, we must deal with the national priorities of reversing poverty and inequality and going through structural reforms, we must sustain our obligation of pursuing justice and development as a collective in the Global South. And that is our attitude in how we relate with China, with Malaysia and many other countries.
And by the way, it's difficult many of you have seen on television that almost every second week in the US congress, there is someone writing a letter, proposing a bill or debating something that South Africa must be isolated. That is the type of stuff that we are going through as South Africa because there is a lobby that says you must isolate South Africa because of what has been happening in the Middle East. But it's important. It's amongst ourselves as partners. And I think that every revolution needs people who endow at those revolution. In this instance, what the revolution requires in the Global South endowment required is intellectual capital, its supports amongst each other, but also support to build long lasting institutions, and those countries in Asia and elsewhere who have much more advanced in the dynamic state capabilities need to be able, as part of the agenda of export building people to people conduct, to support efforts by other countries, especially the small ones, to build their dynamic capability.
So that Eric, when they come and negotiate a BRI contract with China, which will be critiqued in western media, right? A smallest country must be able to sign a contract, understand the terms of condition of and sign it in full confidence that this contract is in the best interest of our country. In some instances, these examples that gets used is because the country would have been small, it should have been desperate to sign a deal because they want the bridge, they want the rail and the road and so on. And all the early generation contract they had some problems in there.
But if we support all countries in the Global South build dynamic capabilities, we will know that when BRI is expanded. That the criticism that the contracts are skewed in favor of China and so on can be managed. We will know actually because even when the infrastructure is built, you need to be maintained. You must know that when the big SOE of China has left, that asset is going to be maintained accordingly. So there has to be that those considerations of sustainability, hence this project of building dynamic state capabilities had to be part and parcel of the people to people conduct.
Izzah: I just want to add on that's such an important factor because the first part is always the great announcement and similar to Hep C, but what's the second episode, or the second season? How do you become sustainable? Right? Because you're gonna be cornered in every market when you take this decision. So deepening of investments and that kind of subsequent support to make sure that it is sustainable, whether the country itself. And this is how it works, because its hand holding and it is challenging. But I think that's the bit that goes back to this huge whole issue interlinkages. Right? I Malaysia is also not exempted from being threatened here and there.
So the point is they're gonna start doing it, but how are we responding. Are we responding collectively?
Eric:So the point is they're gonna start doing it, but how are we responding. Are we responding collectively?
So I think that's a really important point. I think it's a new thing. It's a new phenomenon that China has now become a major economic player in so many countries. That’s a new phenomenon. Our lending, China's lending to the Global South is bigger than WTO and all the western institutions and rich countries combined.
And it's enormous and the company's going there. So I think we actually should probably develop a economic code of conduct for economic activities between China and these countries. And it's kind of a common understanding how we mutually benefit each other on a sustainable basis of it. It's a new phenomenon. So we have a lot of problems 10, 15 years ago where the Chinese companies were going to Myanmar. It was a lot of problems, but then they fixed it. Now they're in a much better shape. So we're learning. I think it goes both ways, that's another task that we should do. I think that China should sit down with Global South institutions, like BRICS, ASEAN, to figure out a framework to how Chinese economic activities should take place in these countries.
Izzah: And vice versa.
Eric: Right.
Busani: That's correct. It's important that we also are open about it. My own understanding of the evolution in the countries I have worked with in Africa is that the type of investment that we see from the Chinese companies in Africa, Now we are now interacting with first grade SOEs and first grade private companies. 15 years ago, we were interacting with 4th grade companies rural China and so on.
Eric: I call hit-and-run company.
Busani: Now the game has changed also because some of them, because we are now interacting with the first tier, They are under strict supervision from government here. So the amount of challenges that were there 15 years ago now are being mitigated by the fact that we are interacting with the biggest of SOEs, the biggest of private companies who are under tight supervision from government itself here. But I think we are opening a frontier for scholars of global relations, that maybe there should be an exploration of what we will call a code of conduct, that in itself will collapse some global some western capital actually.
Eric: And there is a moral aspect to it. If you look at what western economic activities, western companies have been doing in Africa, for instance, in the last 200 years, 300years, it's almost criminal. You go to Ghana where I used to go, I like to go inside the school there. It has rich deposits of gold, and the local people got none of it. Zero. It's all British companies’, Europe an companies’ gold. They sign away the stuff with the corrupt officials and then take the gold; they've been living there for thousand years, got zero. And China should not and will not repeat that. So we need to figure out code of conduct.
Izzah: It's like the confessions of an economy hit man, that book I read.
Eric: We got a big to do list.
Izzah: We do. But at least we know what we need to do. That's a good start.
Eric: The Global South countries need to get together and articulate a vision of the re-globalized world. What kind of world do we want? We talk about justice in the world, economic development, mutual development, bring prosperity to our peoples. So what are the rules of the road? All these things are waiting for us to address. So we need to articulate a vision. What kind of world do we want?
Izzah: This is also exciting, right? I mean in a sense that this moment has come and it's us to kind of craft and draw out. Even the mere mention of a code of conduct, I think it gives a lot of hope, it should give a lot of hope to younger people, the next generation, that there is this move towards a more altruistic engagement within the Global South.
Eric: Exactly. Right. This is the kind of stuff your organization should be leading.
Li Yuefen:Yeah, but we have been doing it very actively already.
Izzah: They're the ones who say I told you so.
Eric: Great. Good. So we're out of time. Let me summarize 30 seconds. I summarize into 4 things that we discussed today. It's amazing discussion. Okay. Number one, you raised it, philosophical underpinning. Can we develop a moral narrative, a common vision for the world we want, the Global South wants, a moral narrative, a justice in the world I heard, a just world order or something like that. So we need to think about that. Second, mutual economic development. How do we cultivate a new economic development architecture with all the changes, deglobalization, reglobalization, supply chain, China's changing economic profile and the production going, so a new economics architecture that help us all develop, help us all keep the ladder and climb up together. Third, what kind of societal policies that we should develop, with regards to poverty, for instance, social policies across diverse cultures and diverse political systems. Fourth, our own standards that are not imposed on us, but we develop our own standards and our own institutions, institutions like BRICS, new institution, ideas that you just raised, the pool of capital that could at least not replace IMF but be an alternative IMF, these kind of new institutional ideas.
Eric: We have work cut out for us. We should go back to our respective countries and work on and think about and work on these things. We want, in the Beijing Club for International Dialogue, we want it to be a platform, a place for us to come back again and again to discuss these things and over time maybe we develop initiatives. Maybe we develop forums when we develop standards, maybe we develop whatever organizations. Thank you so much.
- 原标题:起来,不愿做“美元奴隶”的人们 本文仅代表作者个人观点。
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特朗普转发“巴菲特支持特朗普经济政策”,巴菲特回应了
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演都不演了,特朗普顾问直说:阿根廷得结束这份中国协议,不然…
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中柬云壤港联合保障和训练中心正式挂牌运行
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这一重大科研装置,成功部署!
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美媒关注:辛辣回击特朗普关税,中国媒体用上AI歌曲和短片
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特朗普再要求降息,鲍威尔:关税远超预期,再等等
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