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周波:澳大利亚从未学会平衡的艺术,总是在打别人的仗
最后更新: 2025-01-14 14:16:44以下为采访原文:
ABC: Senior Colonel Zhou Bo is not only one of the best-informed security analysts in China, but he knows Australia well, having spent 3 months at Duntroon, the Australian Army's officer training college, back in 1999. I was keen to know, what is the view inside China about AUKUS?
Zhou Bo: I don’t believe we like AUKUS, because in recent years there are two developments in the Indo-Pacific: one is QUAD, another is AUKUS. The difference between the two, in my opinion, is very simple. Quad is because of China, and AUKUS is against China.
ABC: So, there is no doubt in your mind and in the minds of decision makers in China that it sees itself as the principal Target of AUKUS, does it?
Zhou Bo: Yeah, AUKUS is certainly against China, there is no doubt for anybody here in China, we don't like it from the very beginning, and we believe it should not continue to grow, but even if it grows, it won't matter that much, because it won't be a game-changer.
ABC: Why not?
Zhou Bo: Because it would take Australia probably about two decades to have eight nuclear submarines, so even if you have 8 of them all together in 20 years, compared with China's military development, what standard would the PLA navy have become by that time?Chinese navy is already is the largest in the world.
ABC: Your very answer is the reason why this whole development is underway. Your rapid military buildup, the size of your growing Navy, it’ll become the biggest in the world, can you understand why a country like Australia would think, well we can't be completely exposed in the light of these big changes?
Zhou Bo: That is not something justifiable, f I just tell you that over the last four decades, China's military expenditure is just around 1.5% of GDP, it is sometimes less than that, but it is never over 2% of GDP. Yes, China's economy is big, so therefore 1.5% could be big, but China wants to develop its military in a sustainable way, in a steady manner, so we are not entering into arms race with anyone, I think China is developing the military according to his own tempo and logic.
ABC: I wonder whether AUKUS is ever mentioned at some of the meetings you attended, is AUKUS on the table or not?
Zhou Bo: AUKUS is frequently mentioned and discussed in China, so it is not a secret, everyone knows about it. I believe AUKUS is basically an American effort to let these allies to subsidise its military, because clearly the US now relies more on its allies, and this is almost the benchmark of the Biden administration. Now, Trump’s slogan is America first, but maybe for Biden, it’s allies first. Then, why would Biden administration give unprecedented importance to allies? Because it knows and America knows the United States can no longer afford a global presence, it needs allies.
ABC: You definitely say that Australia is seen as an extension of the United States.
Zhou Bo: That could be another interpretation another way, but basically, you're needed because the United States knows that its own strengths would not be enough.
ABC: We are told that the nuclear subs we're talking about will act as a deterrent at a distance, and that in fact it might give pause to a nation that is rearming, as you talk about, and to change its strategic thinking in the future. Can you see the logic to that?
Zhou Bo: Not at all. Does anybody in Australia believe that all of a sudden China is going to launch attack against Australia for any reasons? No, the only possible scenario for a conflict involving Australia is in Taiwan Strait or in the South China Sea. That means you would have a conflict closer to our doorstep, it’s not the other way around. So if you are talking deterrence, deterrence for what, against what? So again this is the same situation: the United States wants to gang up with you, because they want you to help itself, whose strength is not enough. Historically speaking, let me be frank, Australia always fight other people's wars, except during the second World War; apart from that, you're always fighting other people's wars, be it in Gallipoli, be it in Vietnam, be it in Afghanistan or Iraq. So, I don't believe Australia has ever learnt the art of the balancing.
ABC: I wonder what a final message is to Australians then. Do we see China as inherently a peaceful country, is that what you're saying to us?
Zhou Bo: Well, you see, we are still a country divided, so as a last resort, we may have to use force to resolve this issue for reunification, but it is not certain that we would definitely use force. You would find that Chinese are very much peaceful. China doesn’t like wars. Just think how many wars did United States launch. Ever since 1979, China has not killed a single foreigner elsewhere, apart from China-India border, where we have a deadly clash, resulting in the death of four Chinese soldiers and 20 Indian soldiers, but that is about border clash, about sovereignty. You can't just give me an example of how China has threatened anyone, and has China ever threaten Australia?, And how has China ever interfere with freedom of navigation in the South China Sea? You just can't give me such an example.
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